Dave Rahardja@drahardja@sfba.social

I’m glad to (finally) see some buyer’s remorse in the corporate ranks about their rapid deployment of #AI, often at the expense of jobs (or so they claim).

Costs are rapidly rising. Software quality is plummeting. Morale is tanking. The workers are getting angry. People are swamped with slop. About the only ones happy with this change are sociopaths who live increasingly solipsistic lives with a sycophantic word extruder (and maybe some jaded senior developers who want to get paid as much as possible while the going is good and no longer care what happens downstream).

I’m hopeful that the end is near. The bubble is deflating. The growth is flatlining. We are finally past the Peak of Inflated Expectations and are now descending into the Trough of Disillusionment. Deployments are getting walked back, people are getting rehired, AI budgets are reduced.

The best time for this to have happened was two years ago. The next best time in now.

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Dave Rahardja@drahardja@sfba.social

Replying to @drahardja@sfba.social

The defining moment of the bubble breaking would be the collapse or sale of one of the large US #AI houses. I’m watching both #OpenAI and #Anthropic for signs of trouble. OpenAI has way too many monetary commitments that depend on them increasing revenue manyfold, which is never going to happen with customer budgets trending the way they do; and Anthropic is now forced to hike up token rates eight- or tenfold in short order, which will surely cause the majority of corporate subscribers to vastly reduce their AI deployments, and reverting once again to investing in people. Either of these companies stumbling will cause the market to take a critical look at all the data center and silicon contracts that are in place and ask whether any of it will ever be fully executed. And once *that* happens, the dominos will fall.

I think this happens soon. I’m getting my popcorn. This is gonna be good.

Jul 4, 2026, 20:30 UTCen