The Gotland scenario
The scenario in this article is so obvious bullshit it hurts: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/jul/05/gotland-russia-sweden-ramps-up-defence-baltic-sea-island
To capture and have a chance to hold Gotland for some time, Russia would need about 10.000 to 20.000 soldiers on the island. Let us assume they have those soldiers (and they need very good ones) to spare.
Remark: You think 20.000 men would be a lot? Gotland has over 3.000 square kilometers. That would be 6 men per square kilometer. Even with 20.000 men they can only hold a few strongpoints.
That amount of manpower would mean they have to get at least 70.000 tons of people, supply (for a few weeks) and equipment onto the island... as a surprise.
70.000 tons would mean 1.000+ flight with clumsy, indefensible cargo planes to an island that has NATO countries on all four sides.
Let us assume they get all their 400 transport planes flight ready (and half off them have not flown in years) and into the air. It would still take three round trips and more than 12 hours (and this is extremely generous).
Even with complete and utter surprise (and any preparation would be obvious as fuck) they would loose them by the hundreds. Some may get away because the NATO may run out of missile in this giant turkey shoot.
So let us assume they use some ships they smuggle to Visby. Getting 70.000 tons from the ship (remember, this would be break-bulk cargo) would take weeks even if NATO wouldn't do anything but watching with fascination and the civilian workers in the harbor help.
And in order to block the Baltic see, they would need the heavy stuff. Missiles, Radar, AA and so on.
Any air cover would have to come from Kaliningrad which has no ample supply itself. Building up their strength would also ring more bells than Poland has churches.
I am an armchair strategist and would be embarrassed to put forward such a scenario.
the Guardian‘The risk is Russia becomes desperate’: the Swedish Baltic Sea island preparing for invasionCivilian resilience initiatives and young military conscripts are being readied should Putin hope to test Nato’s resolve